Buildings & Climate Change: Methodology and Areas for Further Research

Authors: Chinowsky, Schweikert, Hayles, Strzepek, Strzepek

Publication Date: September 2012

Abstract: This white paper presents an introduction to the current work being carried out for the upgrading of the Infrastructure Planning Support System to incorporate an holistic approach to the specific impacts of climate change on buildings. The approach builds upon previous work associated with the DUCC effort that emphasized the impact of climate change on roads. The paper illustrates how climate change can affect both wood-based structures as well as masonry-based structures. Issues including the potential effects on exterior siding, ventilation systems, roofing, and drainage systems as well as structural effects are considered in the expanded analysis.

Climate Change and Roads: A Dynamic Stressor-Response Model

Authors: Paul Chinowsky Channing Arndt

Journal: Review of Development Economics

Publication Date: July 2012

Abstract: Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor-response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor-response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change.

Climate Change, Growth and Infrastructure Investment: The Case of Mozambique

Authors: Channing Arndt Paul Chinowsky Kenneth Strzepek James Thurlow

Journal: Review of Development Economics

Publication Date: July 2012

Abstract: Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate-infrastructure model based on stressor-response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy-wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long-run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.

Infrastructure and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptations for the Zambeze River Valley

Authors: Chinowsky, Schweikert, Strzepek, Strzepek

Publication Date: August 2012

Abstract: The African Development Bank has called for $40 Billion USD per year over the coming decades to be provided to African countries to address development issues directly related to climate change. The current study addresses a key component of these issues, the effect of climate change on the road infrastructure of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, all located within the Zambezi river basin. The study incorporates a stressor-response approach to estimate the effects of projected precipitation, temperature, and flooding changes on the paved and unpaved road infrastructure of these countries. The paper highlights the result of running 425 climate scenarios for each road type and policy option from 2010 - 2050. Based on a resulting database of over 1.4 million data points, the three southern African countries are facing a potential $596 million price tag based on median climate scenarios to maintain and repair roads as a result of damages directly related to temperature and precipitation changes from potential climate change through 2050.

See more papers